February 1, 2023
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When WSOP Champions Named All-In With Ten-High (Analysis)

With 5 players left at EPT Monte Carlo 2019’s main event, Ryan Riids and Manig Loeser played hands that surprised poker fans around the world. And gift structure: Riids starting hands so far is the shortest stack – even shorter after posting 200,000 blind Big Ante – which makes ICM relatively small factors. His play and the following analysis will be based strictly on what won the chip, for the sake of simplicity. Hands are closed back below, and you can expand the analysis section by clicking it.

The Jenkins team contributed to this article.

Preflop.

The curtain is 100k / 200k with a big blind ante of 200k. The fold action to the Loeser, chip leader with 9.7 million (48.5bb), which complements from small blinds to 100k more with 6  2 . Ress, a short stack with 980k in the back (a total of 6bb), look down at T  2  and check.

Preflop Analysis.

Loeser Perspective – Loeser can be profitable to push 79% hand here versus a stack of 6BB (according to Snapshove), but strong players can also choose to build a limp range in this place because it allows them to play (and profits) even more than 79% of hands. Let us destroy the possibility of the Loeser point of view into two categories, weak traps and hands protected by traps, and why such hands benefit from limp.

Trap: 66-aa – These hands benefit from limp because they don’t reach many things by encouraging. Hands in the range of riids versus encouragement (weak offsuit hands and the most suitable hands) have very little equity versus 66-aa, so there isn’t much equity to deny. And if Riids has a decent hand, he will almost certainly encourage limp. In addition, when Loeser set the spleen with this hand and RIISTI, Loeser will still be able to realize his strong hand equity because the stack is very shallow. If Riath catches a piece of postflop board, Loeser is likely to accumulate him. Weak hands: 94th, 84th, 74th, 64th, 93rd, 73th, 53rd, 43th, 92th *, 62nd *, 52o *, 42o *, 32on *

* Included in this sample range at a frequency of 50%.

These hands benefit from limp because they can see failure and realize equity, which will not occur if the loeser is folded with them. It’s hard to know exactly how much of this weak hand will be limp here, but above is a reasonable estimate. That said, it seems clear that most players (maybe even loesers) cannot benefit weakly with the weakest hand on the depth of this stack. I know I will choose to fold and give Riids to walk in this hand, and most I think, if not all players read this will be wise to do the same.

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Perspective Of Ress – Riias will push various hands above limp loeser (at least 60%, at least). It’s hard to know exactly how riids must and will build the examination range, but there are some clear inspection hands, such as:

  • A strong partner (77+). These hands don’t benefit much much of the rejection of equity and want to give loeser a weak hand the opportunity to catch a piece.
  • Offsuit waste (32o, 85o, 53O, etc.). These hands are happy to take free failure and they block the span of the Loeser fold fold, making it a little more likely he trapped.

There are less clear hand categories can be checked by hand here: matching high cards and low cards. Here is a visual representation of the part of the grid hand:

 

These hands benefit from checking because they dominate the span folds of the Loeser fold and will realize equity well. That said, I suspect that most players in the game will choose to push their equity preflops by pushing these hands at a frequency of 100% (which may also be a better game). Since inserting this low-low-card that matches this ress range will have an impact on the results of our breaker-based postflop analysis, each of the following sections will include the game of solver with and without this hand included in the range of RIISS preflop checking. (The reason I choose to put this impossible hand at all will be clear in the river analysis section.) The remaining Hands of Riids will encourage also because they have enough equity when called (or, J9O, Q7s, etc.) and / or because they get great benefits from weak handser hands to fold (32s, etc.). Now, let’s move on to failure.

Failure

The flop is handled by J  9  8 . Check Loeser. Resses again.

FLOP Analysis.

Loeser Perspective. Hands Loeser is a pure inspection of this failure according to Piosolver (with a range of preflop sections as input). As far as the remaining reach, he can start the value bet with his strong hands and bully with some of his weak hands that have a flush backdoor draw. PiOSolver likes to divide the bet range between two sizes, 1bb with most hands and 2bb with AA special and KK. He can check with weak pairs, some traps, and some very low equity hands (like his real hand). If we remove very cheap hands from the range of Preflop Riids, the Loeser betting range tightens to only a few hands (AA, KK, 94O-92O, 74O-73O), all of which are mixed frequency bets. Specific hands are still pure checks.

Perspective Of Ress – Hands Resses can run well in failure (this is a mixed frequency bet according to Piosolver). The betting range wants a small bet (1BB) and includes the following hand:

  • Strong hands but vulnerable (AA, QQ, TT, J5-J2).
  • Some enders are open (T5 and TX which are lower in some frequencies), which will bet and call encouragement.
  • Low gutshot (74, 73), which will bet and fold to encouragement.
  • Low equity hands (32, 64).

Riias can check back with flush images, low two-way straight lottery (75, 76), Queen-Highs, hand made strong (KK, JJ, 99, 88), and weak hands (77-55).

Attractive notes: Riias’ Flush Draw works well as a check because they do not want to force the single diamond hand loeser out of the pan. It is because Loeser could be a hand with such a hand if the turn is a diamond, in this case, it will draw dead from most of the ress’ turned flushes.

If we delete very low-hand hands from the range of Preflop Riids, the betting range only includes drawing straight cliffs (76-72, T5-T2) which all bet on mixed frequencies. The specific hand is always a mixed frequency bet.

FLOP PIOSOLVER SIMS.

  • Loeser Strategy With High-Low-Low-Lited Hands In Ress’ Range.
  • Loeser strategy without ranging riess’ very low riess.
  • Ress strategy with rusty hands in its range.
  • Riess strategy without Hands includes high in the range.

Turn

Dealers burn and change J . (Board now J  9  8  J  ). Check Loeser. Check Riess.

Turn Analysis.

Loeser Perspective – Hands Loeser is a pure examination again. He can start betting 9x his hand checking failure and QQ and 99, which plays slow to this point. If we remove the low-low hand from the range of Preflop Riids, Loeser no longer bet 9x in turn.

Perspective of Ress – Ress’s hand, again, either the way. The overall range will be a small bet at a fairly high frequency, including all the hands are worth a separate of several traps. The checking range consists of a ace-high, high, high, weak, and weaker and very weak hands. If we remove very low hands from the range of preflop riids, the back range of the check becomes the lowest partner (8x and 77-55) and lots of lottery (T4O-T2O, 76O-75o, 65o).

River

The river is 9 , complete J  9  8  J  9 .Loeser overbets 980k into a 600K pan, placing the Ress All-in. Call Riids.

River analysis

Instead of dividing this part with a perspective, we will share it with a potential ress preflop range. First, we will analyze the river action assuming Riids only checks the preflop with strong hands (66+) and the worst offsuit hands (T2O, 65O, etc.). This is a more realistic range of preflops, in my opinion.

When the range of preflop riids is garbage 66+ and offsuit – Loeser is driven with a decent portion of its reach, including all 9x and some cliffs. Specific Hands Loeser does not bully by breakers, even though it does not mean the encouragement is incorrect because he can build his range differently from breakers. If Loeser pushes each hand that plays the board, it will be excessive in this place. Resses can exploit this by calling excessively, including some of the hands that play the board. If Riats folves versus the urge, however, is the loeser who exploits by pushing everything. RIISH ‘SOLVER-Suggested response versus encouragement is to call with all hands that don’t play the board, including his actual hand, plus some hands with a good blocker who plays the board (8x, 77, etc.). Let’s pull the solver for a moment and prove this is a favorable call for riids with ancient equity calculations.

He needs to call 980,000 to win 1,580,000, which means he needs to win at least 38% of the time to reach the break-even point (learn how to calculate the pot here). We will estimate that the range of encouraging the value of the loeser in the river including 9x (94o-92o) and AA, and the range of snapping will include a combination of 62o-32O which does not contain diamonds (it may have bet a combination of diamonds on the previous road). Note that this is a conservative estimate of the range of snapping. These are equity calculations for the Loeser estimation range versus Hand Ress: RIISH won the hair below 41% of the time versus the estimated range of Loeser. It was a few points higher than the riids requirement of 38% to call profitable. Now, let’s see if the Ress’ Ten-High is still a call when its range includes low-low-card cards that match the hand (A2S, K3S, Q4S, etc.) that we talked about in the preflop section.

When the range of preflop riids also contains a card high-low card that matches – Loeser’s strategy sees a big shift, here, with a breaker that shows he must check 100% of his hand. But why? Most of the range of each player plays the board on this river, but this is a ress that has more hands not. About 40% of the range of riids makes hands better than the board compared to loeser ~ 20%. As a result, the breaker suggested Loeser check all his hands while Ress could bluff everything when examined into the river. If the loeser pushes, Resses can still call with ten height even though there are many better hands in their range on the river. In other words, even when Ress has a group of queens that are impossible, king, and ace-twoehorned into its reach, ten-high is still a clear call. And something really surprised me: some hands that play the board still also call!

Piosolver Sims River.

  • Loeser Strategy With High-Low-Low-Lited Hands In Ress’ Range.
  • Loeser strategy without ranging riess’ very low riess.
  • Ress strategy with rusty hands in its range.
  • Riess strategy without Hands includes high in the range.

Conclusion

Again, the preflope range for each player in this rare place is very unclear and will be very deviant from the player to the player. Consider the two types of ranges we use in our analysis above, we can conclude ten-high must be called versus overbet this pushes on the river. Now after I assure you that this is the correct call, let’s take a moment to give a serious credit to Ryan Ress. There was a big difference between analyzing hands after the fact and really shifted the chip into the pot with ten-height and 5 players left at the main final table. I hope you enjoy this analysis as much as I enjoy working on it!

Good luck There, All Of You.